Early view of winter 2026/27

Great Britain is expected to have enough electricity this winter, with NESO’s early forecast showing a stronger margin than during the 2022 energy crisis. 

Our current view is that the electricity system will remain secure and reliable through winter 2026/27. We expect a surplus of 5.5GW between 31 October 2026 and 31 March 2027, with an 8.8% buffer over expected peak demand. 

The outlook is positive, but winter conditions can change. NESO will continue to monitor global gas markets, European electricity flows, weather conditions and periods where supply and demand may be more finely balanced, particularly in January. A fuller assessment will be published in the Winter Outlook later this year. 

For households and businesses, the early view is reassuring: Great Britain is forecast to have enough electricity to meet demand this winter. 

Some periods may be more finely balanced, particularly in January, but NESO has established operational tools to manage tighter days and keep the system secure. 

NESO’s assessment is based on detailed modelling of around 30,000 scenarios across the winter period. These scenarios test a range of possible conditions, including demand, weather, renewable generation, power station availability and interconnector performance. 

This modelling helps NESO understand where the system is resilient and where it may need more active management. 

The overall outlook is positive, but winter readiness depends on actively managing a changing energy environment. NESO will continue to monitor: 

• Global gas market pressures. 
• European electricity flows and interconnector performance. 
• Cold, still weather periods that can affect demand and renewable generation. 
• Tighter periods most likely in January. 
• Real-time system conditions through winter. 

Winter resilience depends on the electricity and gas systems working closely together. Gas continues to play an important role in supporting electricity generation, particularly during periods of high demand or lower renewable output. 

NESO works with National Gas and European system operators to understand risks, coordinate planning and support secure operation across the wider energy system. 

Debs Petterson, Director of Whole System Energy Resilience at NESO, and Glenn Bryn Jacobsen, Director of Energy Systems and Resilience at National Gas, explain what sits behind winter readiness and how the electricity and gas systems work together in practice. 

Access the joint Q&A