Bold and sustained action on clean energy “imperative” now and beyond 2030

14 July
Urban landscape with flats, houses and fields

Key facts
New NESO report says Britain must accelerate clean energy and empower households to switch to low-carbon heating, demand flexibility and improve energy efficiency
Future Energy Scenarios 2025 projects electricity demand will rise nearly threefold by 2050, becoming the main source of clean energy
But improvements to energy efficiency of buildings and appliances could cut electricity demand by up to a fifth while introducing greater demand flexibility could cut peak demand in half

Britain will only unlock the benefits of net zero by 2050 in an affordable and secure way if bold and sustained action on clean energy is taken now and beyond 2030, a new report by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) says today (14 July).

NESO’s first ‘Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero 2025’ (FES 2025) report shows Britain needs to accelerate progress on delivering clean electricity, bioenergy, hydrogen and clean energy storage. It also says more needs to be done to empower households and businesses to switch to low-carbon heating, adopt effective energy efficiency measures and come to view demand flexibility as a normal everyday activity. 

FES 2025 shows electricity demand could rise nearly threefold from 290 Terawatt-hour (TWh) today to between 705 and 797 TWh in 2050, becoming the main source of clean energy. It examines the choices facing government, industry and households and considers three net zero pathways with varying levels of electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and consumer engagement.

NESO’s independent analysis predicts annual emissions could halve to around 200 megatonnes of CO2 a year (MtCO2e/yr) during the course of the next decade. However, this will only be possible by accelerating the mainstream use of low-carbon technologies across all sectors of the economy – from industry through to homes and transport. If the right infrastructure is in place at the right time, then emissions could be cut by as much as three quarters to around 100 MtCO2e/yr by 2040. 

Britain is expected to have new energy infrastructure, including wind and solar, that will boost the total amount of power available on the grid threefold by 2050. This includes between 98 and 328 TWh of hydrogen powering the network by the middle of the century. But the single biggest source of flexibility across supply and demand, providing 51 GW at peak, will come from electric vehicles (EVs) - more than the capacity of gas fired generation today.

Fintan Slye, Chief Executive of NESO, said:

“Over the past year, we have run the electricity system at 95% zero-carbon for the first time and phased out coal entirely from our energy system. But this isn’t enough. We need to go further and faster, accelerating the roll-out of clean energy technologies is imperative to help deliver a clean and affordable energy system in the long-term. 

“The choices made today will shape the success of each wave of Britain’s transition. That means speeding up the adoption of energy efficiency measures, empowering households and businesses to make informed choices on things like demand flexibility, purchasing an electric car and switching to low-carbon heating.”

FES 2025 says Britain’s carbon neutral journey has four key waves. With the initial foundation wave having been laid for the transition, Britain is now on the second - accelerating and scaling up the markets up to 2030, for the uptake of new low-carbon technologies to deliver clean power. Only once this succeeds can Britain then enter the third and fourth waves of growth and completion (horizon) to secure net zero by 2050. 

It explains that a decarbonised power sector is critical for net zero, with the availability of low-carbon power unlocking routes for other sectors to decarbonise. The three pathways reflect significant increases in heat pump installations, demand flexibility, and EV take-up, and significant growth in low carbon energy sources.

The report also calls for various measures to be prioritised to ensure Britain meets net zero by 2050 in an affordable and secure way, including: 

  • building infrastructure for electricity, gas, hydrogen and carbon capture at pace;
  • accelerating widespread energy efficiency measures, innovative tariffs and demand flexibility to save money for consumers; and
  • incentivising the decarbonisation of industry by switching to low-carbon fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

This year’s FES comes after a year of significant policy changes by the UK Government, including lifting the offshore wind ban, bringing forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2030, the Clean Power Action Plan and the start of NESO’s connections reform – supporting the once-in-a-generation expansion of Britain’s clean electricity network. 

FES 2025 complements NESO’s Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) and the Regional Energy Strategic Plan (RESP), supporting the development of advice on onshore electricity, gas and hydrogen infrastructure for Great Britain up to the middle of the century.